Modeling Dengue disease: two real outbreaks - theoretical and practical issues
 
 
Description: 
Epidemiology has become an important issue for modern society. Demographic evolution, accelerated urbanization, increased traveling and climate change, all favor the propagation of infectious diseases.

Dengue is the most rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral disease in the world. According to World Health Organization (WHO), over 40% of world’s population is at risk. As financial resources are limited, there is a pressing need to optimize investments for disease prevention and fight. Mathematical modeling plays a fundamental role in the study of Dengue disease evolution and will be used in the process of planning the intervention measures to fight the disease in the communities.

This talk aims to present the experience in modeling Dengue disease. Two Dengue outbreaks are addressed: Cape Verde in 2008 and Madeira Island in 2012. The studied models are based on systems of ordinary differential equations with initial conditions, including state variables for the human and mosquito populations and one or more control variables. Several kind of models are studied depending on the set of state and control variables and on the parameters. As control variables, insecticide, larvicide and educational campaigns are considered.

Epidemiology concepts like basic reproduction number, equilibrium points, parameters sensibility and hypothetical vaccination are presented.

Different strategies are used: Numerical Differentiation, Nonlinear Optimization, Optimal Control and more recently, Multi-Objective Optimization. Several software packages are tested: Matlab (Differentiation and Optimization toolboxes), OC-ODE, DOTcvp toolbox, IPOPT and Snopt. Oficial data are used in the computational experiments.
Date:  2015-06-17
Start Time:   14:30
Speaker:  Maria Teresa Monteiro (ALGORITMI, Univ. Minho)
Institution:  Department of Production and Systems, University of Minho, Braga
Place:  Room 5.5
Research Groups: -Numerical Analysis and Optimization
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